How To Trade Stocks Accurately During Recurring Cycles
This year, the recurring market trends were a kaput. The majority plainly did not pan out.
But, this actually is nothing novel. If you do a 25 year chart on the main indices, you will establish that a number of years basically don't happen as expected. But what you will also establish is that in nearly all years, they mostly do.
What does that suggest for us going into 2010?
It means that 2009 was one of those atypical years where seasonality did not work meaning that in 2010, seasonality will probably work once more.
The first recurring trend will be upon us in just a couple of weeks, so let's do a quick review.
The stock market has comparatively consistent and dependable seasonal trends. You must know the most prominent recurring trends, because this information can stop you from being extremely bullish at a cyclic peak or excessively bearish at a seasonal low.
In a nutshell, the general trends support a turn down in early January (maybe profit-taking selling), followed by a mid-January rally. By late March or early April the market often reaches a peak, followed by a irregular market in mid-April, perhaps related to the April 15 tax deadline. The early summer months are frequently characterized by a midsummer rally, culminating in a market top in late July or early August. September and October are usually down months in the stock market (witness the 1929 Crash and the 1987 October decline), with the lows happening sometime in late October (a good buying opportunity?). The trend into the end of the year is typically bullish, with the first two weeks in December characterized by a vigorous market. The Christmas holidays are usually quiet, with uneven and thin markets. There are always exceptions to these actual trends, but the general pattern is extraordinarily consistent.
Print this article if you have to and stick it near your trading screen. I believe that because 2009 was a rare bust for the majority of the recurring trends discussed above, 2010 will be an on year. One of the principal mistakes amateur traders make is that they get sniped by more superior fighters who know the seasonality trends.
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